Nitish Kumar is Day dreaming . Some one from congress whispered in his ears that He can be a prime minister . His position would be like Manpreet Badal in Punjab . Ghar Ka naa Bahaar ka .Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and a
powerful lobby within the BJP announced today that the NDA’s Prime
Ministerial candidate must have “secular” credentials – code for
say-no-to-Narendra Modi.
Let us believe that NDA Led by a secular Prime Ministerial candidate (Advani? Sushma? Jaitley? Nitish himself?), the NDA will probably get 200 seats in the next Lok Sabha election – 140 for the BJP, 25 for the JD (U) and 35 between traditional allies Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and others.
That will make a secular NDA-3 government heavily dependent on support from Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and – horror of horrors – the mercurial, anti-reform Mamata’s TMC if and when she walks out of UPA-2.
Is Modi Can be polarizing factor for BJP , I would say yes . People are looking for for a strong person to lead this country and with Modi be prim ministerial candidate might fetch about 3-4 % of vote swing , which can bring NDA again in to power . There are also chances that Muslim votes also might get polarized and vote overwhelmingly in favor of congress, which can spoil game . But I am sure right wing polarized votes will be big % then later one
The BJP clearly needs to add around 3% to its average national voteshare of 22.58% clocked over the last 14 years to come close to 190-200 Lok Sabha seats on its own and not rely excessively on pernickety allies to form an NDA-3 government. Is it most likely to achieve that with Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate or a more “secular” leader like Sushma, Jaitley or even Advani, backed by Nitish?
Modi will coalesce the rightwing vote around him as Vajpayee coalesced a more inclusivist vote in 1999 when the BJP won 182 Lok Sabha seats with a mere 23.75% national voteshare. With a likely contribution of just 25 Bihar Lok Sabha seats, should Nitish decide who will lead the BJP into 2014? Shades of UPA’s Mulayam and Mamata hectoring the Congress with 22 and 20 Lok Sabha seats respectively?
The BJP will have to soon decide its definition of “secular”. Because , when congress can be secular after killing 30,000 Sikhs in 1984 then why Modi can not be . He is blamed for anti muslim riots in which about just 1000 people got killed . Nitish has been a fine, progressive, inclusivist Chief Minister of Bihar. But does he have the electoral pull to lift the NDA into 270-plus territory? Do the NDA’s other leaders?. No I do not think so . This time also Nitish became chief minster , with the help of BJP grown seats .
Modi alone probably does though he is hobbled by 2002. But then, despite 1984, we were happy to give Rajiv Gandhi five years as Prime Minister. Once they finish their tortuous, drawn-out deliberations over who they will back as President, the BJP’s leaders will have to come to terms with the question: Modi or Nitish?
If they plump for secular Nitish, they will be widely applauded but will likely spend five more years in the opposition. If they go for Modi, they will be reviled but will probably form the next governmen. So Modi is the only person for this time , otherwise Banumati has to wait again 5 years to come in power
Let us believe that NDA Led by a secular Prime Ministerial candidate (Advani? Sushma? Jaitley? Nitish himself?), the NDA will probably get 200 seats in the next Lok Sabha election – 140 for the BJP, 25 for the JD (U) and 35 between traditional allies Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and others.
That will make a secular NDA-3 government heavily dependent on support from Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress, Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and – horror of horrors – the mercurial, anti-reform Mamata’s TMC if and when she walks out of UPA-2.
Is Modi Can be polarizing factor for BJP , I would say yes . People are looking for for a strong person to lead this country and with Modi be prim ministerial candidate might fetch about 3-4 % of vote swing , which can bring NDA again in to power . There are also chances that Muslim votes also might get polarized and vote overwhelmingly in favor of congress, which can spoil game . But I am sure right wing polarized votes will be big % then later one
The BJP clearly needs to add around 3% to its average national voteshare of 22.58% clocked over the last 14 years to come close to 190-200 Lok Sabha seats on its own and not rely excessively on pernickety allies to form an NDA-3 government. Is it most likely to achieve that with Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate or a more “secular” leader like Sushma, Jaitley or even Advani, backed by Nitish?
Modi will coalesce the rightwing vote around him as Vajpayee coalesced a more inclusivist vote in 1999 when the BJP won 182 Lok Sabha seats with a mere 23.75% national voteshare. With a likely contribution of just 25 Bihar Lok Sabha seats, should Nitish decide who will lead the BJP into 2014? Shades of UPA’s Mulayam and Mamata hectoring the Congress with 22 and 20 Lok Sabha seats respectively?
The BJP will have to soon decide its definition of “secular”. Because , when congress can be secular after killing 30,000 Sikhs in 1984 then why Modi can not be . He is blamed for anti muslim riots in which about just 1000 people got killed . Nitish has been a fine, progressive, inclusivist Chief Minister of Bihar. But does he have the electoral pull to lift the NDA into 270-plus territory? Do the NDA’s other leaders?. No I do not think so . This time also Nitish became chief minster , with the help of BJP grown seats .
Modi alone probably does though he is hobbled by 2002. But then, despite 1984, we were happy to give Rajiv Gandhi five years as Prime Minister. Once they finish their tortuous, drawn-out deliberations over who they will back as President, the BJP’s leaders will have to come to terms with the question: Modi or Nitish?
If they plump for secular Nitish, they will be widely applauded but will likely spend five more years in the opposition. If they go for Modi, they will be reviled but will probably form the next governmen. So Modi is the only person for this time , otherwise Banumati has to wait again 5 years to come in power
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